APAC CIOOutlook

Advertise

with us

  • Technologies
      • Artificial Intelligence
      • Big Data
      • Blockchain
      • Cloud
      • Digital Transformation
      • Internet of Things
      • Low Code No Code
      • MarTech
      • Mobile Application
      • Security
      • Software Testing
      • Wireless
  • Industries
      • E-Commerce
      • Education
      • Logistics
      • Retail
      • Supply Chain
      • Travel and Hospitality
  • Platforms
      • Microsoft
      • Salesforce
      • SAP
  • Solutions
      • Business Intelligence
      • Cognitive
      • Contact Center
      • CRM
      • Cyber Security
      • Data Center
      • Gamification
      • Procurement
      • Smart City
      • Workflow
  • Home
  • CXO Insights
  • CIO Views
  • Vendors
  • News
  • Conferences
  • Whitepapers
  • Newsletter
  • Awards
Apac
  • Artificial Intelligence

    Big Data

    Blockchain

    Cloud

    Digital Transformation

    Internet of Things

    Low Code No Code

    MarTech

    Mobile Application

    Security

    Software Testing

    Wireless

  • E-Commerce

    Education

    Logistics

    Retail

    Supply Chain

    Travel and Hospitality

  • Microsoft

    Salesforce

    SAP

  • Business Intelligence

    Cognitive

    Contact Center

    CRM

    Cyber Security

    Data Center

    Gamification

    Procurement

    Smart City

    Workflow

Menu
    • Automotive
    • Cyber Security
    • Hotel Management
    • Workflow
    • E-Commerce
    • Business Intelligence
    • MORE
    #

    Apac CIOOutlook Weekly Brief

    ×

    Be first to read the latest tech news, Industry Leader's Insights, and CIO interviews of medium and large enterprises exclusively from Apac CIOOutlook

    Subscribe

    loading

    THANK YOU FOR SUBSCRIBING

    • Home
    Editor's Pick (1 - 4 of 8)
    left
    Augmented Reality and Virtual Reality

    Shekhar Chhajer, CIO South East Asia, India and CoC Sales Overseas, Mercedes Benz

    The Future of Automotives: Driven By People, Powered By Digital

    Raman Mehta, CIO, Visteon Corporation

    Balancing Information and Technology

    Dhruwa Rai,

    Using IT as a Competitive Advantage

    Klas Bendrik, CIO, Volvo Cars

    Systemize the Entire Solution Cycle

    Dennis Hodges, CIO, Inteva Products

    Innovation Driven by People with Excellent Ideas

    Mattias Ulbrich, CIO, Audi AG

    Technology Interwoven with the Fabric of Cars

    James Seevers, CIO & GM, Toyoda Gosei

    Coupling Predictive Demand Planning with CRM for Improved Visibility

    Aaron Weiss, VP and CIO, Axalta

    right

    Autonomous Vehicles will Change Everything in the Next Decade-Right?

    Pete Kelly, Managing Director, LMC Automotive

    Tweet
    content-image

    Pete Kelly, Managing Director, LMC Automotive

    Tracking the developments in the field of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) is a complex endeavour. At LMC Automotive, our goal– to produce responsive and focused forecasts for the automotive industry–requires a view on the most likely development path in this area. But there are a number of differences between this and our traditional industry analysis. One is that there is no historical precedent for this kind of technology change. Another is the vast array of information, much hidden by commercial sensitivities, to be tracked when forming a view. Even within the developing AV industry itself, there is a huge range of opinion on what is possible.

    For automotive industry participants, planning for the large-scale arrival of high autonomy (vehicles at SAE Level 4 or above) is now a standing item on operational and strategic plans. At LMC Automotive, we have developed some basic principles to determine how this will play out.

    One, accept that this technology change requires forecast scenarios for both timing of mass adoption of AVs and the numbers likely to be involved. Anybody offering confident forecasts on AV markets right now is either trying to fool their audience, or has already succeeded in fooling themselves over the certainty of their projections. Things will become clearer over time and this will allow for a narrowing of the scenario ranges. But it is prudent to have an open mind now, with views of the AV dreamers at one end of the spectrum, and the AV sceptics at the other.

    Two, focus on and monitor the development of a large array of factors that will genuinely enable the uptake of AVs in the future.

    Three, engage continuously with those actually creating technology and systems that will enable successful AV projects. Interestingly, in talking with technology, and particularly software, specialists, it is common to encounter a determination to succeed in AV development coupled with realistic expectations on the timeframes involved.

    Four, maintain a live set of forecast scenarios for AVs, responding to new developments as they continue to come thick and fast.

    Five, align a central forecast to our traditional automotive sector models, to account for the impact on non-high-autonomy vehicles.

    The organisational complexity of the holistic solution is daunting, which is why AV developers require considerable resources and partnerships to move forward

    Once we have significant deployments of AVs, shared autonomous mobility is going to destroy a component of traditional owned-vehicle demand. In this respect, the impact of shared AVs is of paramount importance and a real focus of our analysis. The trouble here is that nobody yet understands how many owned vehicles will be displaced by each deployed shared AV. And this, therefore, means a few more scenarios are needed to capture low, medium or high levels of substitution.

    A sixth and final point is to retain some scepticism about claims that the transformation is coming very soon. We have categorised the barriers to adoption into broad groupings, each of which has a number of critically important sub-sections. These are: in-vehicle technologies/capabilities; immediate environment external issues; the human factor; commercial considerations; and broad operating frameworks. For mass adoption to proceed successfully, the majority of these issues must be addressed completely. Among the many items where we see potential for delays, some stand out: managing complex city situations (pedestrians, cyclists, unpredictable human drivers, etc.) without unacceptably hesitant or aggressive AV driving styles; meeting peak demand (if significant AV fleet redundancy is not available for peak times, shared AVs will not be widely relied upon as a core of future mobility); regulation (in the context of highly varied operating conditions, safety levels, differing rules-of-road road norms); agreement on ethics and morality of AV decision making (which appears under-developed at this point); required AV-supporting infrastructure (which can take decades to implement at scale); integration with public transport systems (also under-developed and still mostly envisaged in concept form); and human resistance to change. Other thorny issues will no doubt emerge.

    The organisational complexity of the holistic solution is daunting, which is why, initially, considerable resources and partnerships have been required by AV developers to move forward, in stepwise fashion. In this way, the initial trials, running into thousands, not hundreds of thousands, of AVs will inform developers about how to do it. Each iteration will provide learnings for the next stage.

    So when you next see a media report that “Autonomous Vehicles have arrived” or that “The revolution has started” it is important to be aware that this will be just one of the earlier steps in an evolution towards a new form of personal mobility, likely to take place over a generation or more. If you have already seen predictions that the traditional industry will be swept away by AVs by the end of the 2020s, then perhaps take that with a pinch of salt. No doubt, we will see some impressive results, but it is likely that we will also see some significant limitations. It will be a long road.

    Weekly Brief

    loading
    Top 10 Automotive Technology Companies - 2019
    ON THE DECK

    Automotive 2019

    I agree We use cookies on this website to enhance your user experience. By clicking any link on this page you are giving your consent for us to set cookies. More info

    Copyright © 2025 APAC CIOOutlook. All rights reserved. Registration on or use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy and Anti Spam Policy 

    Home |  CXO Insights |   Whitepapers |   Subscribe |   Conferences |   Sitemaps |   About us |   Advertise with us |   Editorial Policy |   Feedback Policy |  

    follow on linkedinfollow on twitter follow on rss
    This content is copyright protected

    However, if you would like to share the information in this article, you may use the link below:

    https://automotive.apacciooutlook.com/cxoinsights/autonomous-vehicles-will-change-everything-in-the-next-decaderight-nwid-5662.html